Russia has been vigorously attempting human penetration of Ukraine human networks, with surprisingly disappointing success. One should pay the hacker if he shows you how he did it and helps you to do it to other people, and prevent other people from doing it to oneself, attempt to find him and harm him if he does not. Russian response to identified vulnerabilities has been foolish and self destructive, covering them up rather than addressing them. If you cannot defend your computer networks, you probably cannot attack other people’s networks, because you cannot identify vulnerabilities. Russian state networks were, and recently still were, wide open. They demand companies insert of obvious spyware in their networks, which is quite useless because if you know where the spyware is, you feed it bullshit and bypass it for what really matters. The Chinese were not even trying to penetrate other people’s networks, though maybe they are now. Last time the I knew anything about what state level actors were doing, the US had massive penetration of everyone’s computer network, and the Chinese were starting, barely starting, to have some success in excluding them. Compare and contrast network immensely successful penetration by American Military intelligence. Their state level hackers just don’t seem very good at it. The Russian computer network penetration effort has failed. > Maybe Info Epoch Warfare is still the winning ticket, unless your opponent (Russia) is happy to just shoot many thousand artillery shells and advance X yards per day, and can safely resupply themselves via a fully protected highway. That must still be way too dangerous with all those man-portable missiles out there. > What I no longer see is video of tanks driving around. > Has Has the steady grind of Russian artillery fire and Ukrainian logistical disappointment undermined their Info Epoch Warfare? Pulled the plug on it somehow? We are also seeing a deep reluctance of officers to go to the front. We are now seeing very large numbers of mutinies by Ukrainian grunts. World War I tactics use up, consume, and exhaust your army. The Ukrainians are trying to reuse troops, which neither side was very successful in doing during World War I.
So the Russians are having success by endlessly, unpredictably, and unexpectedly, switching from one segment of the front to another. But when you try to move those terrified troops from the location where they were being bombarded, to a new location, they are apt to dig in their heels once they have been removed from the old location on the front, where the enemy has become become tired of attacking, and are ordered to go to a new location on the front, where the enemy is, despite the great cost of World War I tactics, advancing. Which prevents attempts to advance no matter how much artillery the enemy applies. The problem with World War I tactics is that they rely on the fact that frightened troops do not flee artillery bombardment, they dig in. Currently it is World War I, which is a horrifyingly costly and destructive way of waging war, and the cost is biting both sides hard, but seems to be costing the Ukrainians worse. Ukraine has been attempting World War I tactics, which worked great for a little while, but they are starting to run out of troops willing to fight. > The narrative is shifting to the Russians managing to muddle through anyway, and the blue-and-yellow Ukraine flags have all but vanished from Twitter. War matters, so promoting this conversation to a post.